Tropical Cyclone Contribution to Rainfall in Indonesia’s New Capital City under Seasonal Variability and Madden-Julian Oscillation Modulation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.48048/tis.2026.13446Keywords:
Rainfall, Tropical Cyclones, Madden–Julian Oscillation, New Capital City, Rainfall, Tropical cyclones, Madden-julian oscillation, New capital city, Seasonal modulation, Monsoon trough, IMERG, IBTrACSAbstract
This study investigates the contribution of tropical cyclone (TC)–induced rainfall (TC rain) and the modulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the New Capital City of Indonesia (hereafter called Nusantara City or NC), East Kalimantan. A total of 318 TCs were examined using the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data during 2000 - 2024. Daily rainfall from the IMERG Final Product (IMERG-F) was analyzed using RMM-based MJO phase classification. Rainfall from within 1,100 km of the TC center was considered as TC-induced rainfall. Seasonal analysis indicates that TC rainfall contributes 11% - 12% of total rainfall during JJA and increases markedly to 19% - 23% during September - November (SON). MJO modulation demonstrated that TC dominance intensifies during convective suppression phases over Indonesia: the contribution of TC rain exceeded 20% in Phases 5 - 6 during JJA and surpassed 30% in Phases 6 - 7 during SON. This amplification occurs when the MJO convective center shifts to the Western Pacific, dynamically strengthening the monsoon trough and enhancing the interaction between TCs and regional moisture transport toward Kalimantan. A 25-year linear trend analysis indicated a slight increase in total rainfall and a slight decline in TC rain; however, neither was statistically significant, reflecting the low frequency of cyclones directly affecting Kalimantan. Despite the slight annual trend, the substantial contribution of TC during JJA and SON highlights its crucial role as a short-term trigger of extreme rainfall. These findings emphasize the need for integrating TC-related hydrometeorological hazard functions into regional disaster risk mitigation, particularly during the peak transition season.
HIGHLIGHTS
- Tropical Cyclones (TC)-induced rainfall over Nusantara City is strongly modulated by the MJO during JJA and SON, based on 25-year IMERG and IBTrACS data.
- The contribution of TC to SON (~19% - 23%) is almost twice as large as in JJA (~11% - 12%), making SON the most cyclone-sensitive season.
- MJO amplifies the impacts of TC, with a >20% contribution in Phases 5 - 6 (JJA) and >30% in Phases 6 - 7 (SON).
- Long-term trends show rising total rainfall and slightly decreasing TC rainfall.
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